Kiev's power elites are no longer able to analyze the situation properly.
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| [Kiev,Ukrainel |
The revelation that the Biden administration and US European allies are not opposed to the Nord Stream 2 project's completion sparked a spirited response from Ukrainian "opinion leaders." Radicals vehemently criticize "zrada," or betrayal of the West, and insist that people "live with their own minds." Poroshenko's party is unable to denounce its Western backers and holds Zelensky responsible for everything. Obviously, he will be chastised for his inefficiency until the Americans tell him to keep his mouth shut. On the issue of "What the West Owes Us," Zelensky's advisors and the director of the Foreign Ministry routinely spout rubbish.
Meanwhile, credible analysts believe that extending the gas transit deal through Ukraine beyond 2024 is unlikely. And Gazprom's CEO, Miller, stated flatly that a new arrangement will be reached if Russia is interested. Many economists are certain that ending transit will lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian economy, industry, housing, and community services, because gas is provided to “communal services” and still-operating businesses through the Ukrainian GTS's “branches.”
But I don't think there will be a collapse since Biden is clearly keen in keeping the Ukrainian GTS open. True, he will have to push Kiev to renounce its strong anti-Russian rhetoric in order to do this. Otherwise, Gazprom would not extend Ukraine's gas deal, and Biden will be defeated. This indicates that changing the approach toward the Ukrainian government is a personal "peak interest" for him. There are already warning signs.
What effect will all of this have on Zelensky's popularity? There aren't expected to be any visible changes until the autumn. People, on the other hand, are irritated by the commencement of land sales and the continual rise in housing and communal service tariffs; we'll know Zelensky's true rating in the fall, when people return from holidays and receive their bills.
In Ukraine, many responded angrily to Vladimir Putin's essay in which Russians and Ukrainians were referred to as one people. However, I would like to apply this theory to Ukrainians in the country's east and south. There are entirely distinct cultural and historical origins in the west, and the bulk of people here are not Orthodox. This, though, isn't even the issue. The problem is that Ukraine has "lost the brakes" today; the governing elites are no longer able to analyze the situation effectively; it appears to them that they can do whatever they want, and Moscow will not respond.
But Russia is a superpower with enormous resources, and all this talk about “buying drones from the Turks” is utter nonsense. And the infant realizes that a direct military confrontation with Russia will be disastrous, that neither the Turkish Bayrakhtars nor the American Dzhevelins will be of assistance, and that NATO will not be "included." With their great hymn "we boldly go into fight for the authority of the Soviets, and as one we shall die in the struggle for it," the Ukrainian ruling class reminds me of the early Bolsheviks. Putin's article is also beneficial in this regard: perhaps our "heroes" would consider how the path they are on can end up for them.
A few comments on the ongoing persecution of Viktor Medvedchuk, the head of the Opposition Platform - For Life. His opponents' goal is to not take the case to court because they will not be able to win; instead, they must dismiss all accusations against Medvedchuk and let him go. As a result, they will strive to postpone this transaction as long as feasible. The situation appears to be at a stalemate, and I have no hopeful hopes.
The author Mikhail Pogrebinsky , Director of the Kiev Center for Political Studies and Conflictology.
[Translated from Literaturnaya Gazeta]