Iraq, which has been attempting diplomatic overtures to Arab countries for some months, fears the worst as a result of the American pullout from Afghanistan.
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Is it possible that, like Afghanistan, the withdrawal of American "fighting forces" would throw Iraq into chaos? Without a doubt not, if we trust the experts, who regard it as a ruse by Washington to allow Prime Minister Moustafa Al-Kazimi some freedom before the October legislative elections. In reality, the operation provides him with the opportunity to fulfill a Shiite community demand for American soldiers to leave.
Washington plans to keep (non-combatant) soldiers in the region, mostly to watch its economic interests. For the time being, this necessitates keeping this Prime Minister, who has little political support. It's the only way to keep some sort of order in Iraq, in a region that's been destabilized by the Afghan situation. According to the Elysee Palace, it is a "pivotal country, a hinge in the Middle East" which should be supported, as demonstrated by the French President's visit to Baghdad this weekend.
Corruption and militias in Iraq
According to Adel Bakawan, head of the French research center on Iraq, the nation is "on the verge of territorial disintegration and risks civil war" It is a confessional mosaic, with Shiites accounting for 55% of the population, Sunnis for 20%, and Kurds for 5%. (20 percent ). It has been under the dual control of the United States and Iran since 2003. Corruption and militia conflict afflict the country. "There are more billionaires in Iraq than in 13 European countries combined," claimed Adel Bakawan. "There were none before 2003."
The Iraqis are finding it increasingly difficult to cope with the situation. Almost none of the 80 billion dollars committed in 2018 at the Kuwait conference for the country's restoration has been paid since no one has faith. Last October, massive protests against governmental neglect and foreign influence erupted, prompting former Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi's resignation. He was not replaced until May of the following year, after leaving in November.
Daesh resurgence in Iraq
Today, the government "must deal with the Covid, the Islamic State's resurgence, Turkish troops' offensive in the north against the PKK, and the growing power of Shiite militias." “No one is going to invest in these conditions,” Adel Bakawan remarks. Drone assaults on Saudi Arabian targets from Iraqi bases further exacerbated the political situation.
Baghdad is increasingly reaching out to Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Egypt, to counter hostile demonstrations by Iran and its Shiite relays in Iraq, which have gotten worse since the assassination of General Soleimani, and to counter a more pronounced disengagement by the Americans. This weekend in Baghdad, a regional meeting will be conducted, and the list and rank of envoys attending will reveal a lot about the dialogue's progress.
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Iraq is a Middle Easter country with the population of 39 million and $250 billion GDP as of 2019.
©Virginie Robert/ LesEchos