Beijing addresses the future of a nation with which it shares a border with pragmatism.
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| [China-Afghanistan] |
Images of the US military's messy withdrawal from Afghanistan are pure gold for Chinese propaganda, which uses them as convincing evidence of American decadence. On social media, you may read, "At least it has been more harmonious than Donald Trump's" Many experts saw the events in Kabul as a major triumph for Beijing, which now has the chance to fill the gap created by Washington, do multibillion-dollar business, and expand its worldwide influence.
However, the situation on the ground is more complicated. The Chinese regime has historically been wary of the bearded men's ideological agenda; investments, which have remained sporadic, would carry significant risks and uncertainties; and the context's volatility advises the Chinese regime to be cautious and spin very fine with some neighbors whose intentions are still unknown. “China rarely looks at Afghanistan through the lens of opportunity; it's almost entirely about managing threats,” says Andrew Small of the German Marshall Fund.
"USA. “You should not leave this mess behind and blame others,” the Foreign Minister says.
Beijing has long been apprehensive of the United States' extended involvement in Afghanistan, with which it shares an 80-kilometer border strip at the end of the Vajan corridor. Nonetheless, he has benefitted from the relative stability that his presence in these volatile areas has given to his interests. Now, he was depending on Washington to pull out after guaranteeing a smooth and orderly transfer, but the last scare has sparked chaos in what they consider their backyard. "They should not leave leaving all this mess behind and pass the burden on to others," Foreign Minister Wang Yi has blasted.
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China is worried that Afghanistan may become a safe haven for the most radical members of the Muslim Uighur minority fighting for Xinjiang's independence.
Hundreds of militants of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) used to operate in the Afghan regions along the border, carrying out horrific attacks on Chinese land that only ended when a stifling control system with military camps was implemented. internment. The United Nations continues to classify this entity as a terrorist organization - the United States of America. In the midst of tensions with China, he caught him off guard, and it's believed that his ideological affinities with Kabul's new leadership would give them carte permission to resume their attack.
China is particularly afraid that the Taliban triumph could inflame radicals working in Central Asia and Pakistan, which is the crown jewel of China's new Silk Road mega-project. There are recent examples to back up their worries, such as the April bombing of the hotel where the Chinese envoy was staying in Quetta, or the July attack in northwest Pakistan that killed nine Chinese laborers.
Minister Wang, however, welcomed a group led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, co-founder and political leader of the bearded men, in Tianjin at the end of July, as a demonstration of their pragmatism and compelled by circumstances. During the discussion, he requested that his assets and residents be protected, as well as that the adjacent country not become a sanctuary for terrorists. They promised them assistance with reconstruction and recognition as a legitimate interlocutor in exchange. "We will not allow anyone to use Afghan territory against China," the country's spokesperson, Mohamed Naim, pledged.
The Chinese authorities appear to have given them a vote of confidence, at least on the surface. Hua Chunying, the Taliban's international spokesperson, said yesterday that the Taliban are now "calmer and more rational" than they were when they were in control, and urged other governments to be "more objective" in assessing the situation. Nonetheless, he advised militants to be adamant about breaking links with other terrorist groups.
Despite the fact that they appear to have adopted a more pragmatic stance, many people remain skeptical of the Taliban's true objectives. The fact that they won the war does not imply they can provide "solid, effective, and structured" assurances for the Chinese, as Xulio Ros, head of the Observatory of Chinese Politics, said. Furthermore, given its doctrinal radicalism, a return to more militant Islamism is inevitable, posing a risk of Xinjiang contagion.
In the midst of so much uncertainty, the only thing that appears definite is that Beijing will not deploy soldiers to areas where the British, Russians, and Americans have already fallen one by one. Meanwhile, he keeps a close eye on the unfolding events and prepared to respond to any potential dangers. In this respect, three days ago, Chinese and Tajik forces launched anti-terrorist drills outside of Dushambé, Tajikistan's capital, and promised to work together to ensure regional security.
The author Ismael Arana is a Hong Kong based journalist.
[This article first appeared on La VanGuardi and translated into English ]