The ongoing Donbass conflict between Ukraine and Russia has long historic root.
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| [Donbass, the conflict zone between Russia and Ukraine.© The Interpret ] |
Russia is being accused of massing troops along Ukraine’s eastern border. Moscow calls it an act of deterrence and blames the west for curating this crisis.
Kiev on the other hand says this an act of aggression over the likely induction of Ukraine in the in the NATO. In this article I am going to discuss about the root and history of these conflicts between these two brothers.
After the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine gained independence looked like this. But now it looks like this.
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| [Ukraine map. ©BBC] |
The Ukrainian Peninsula known as Crimea was controversially annexed by Russia in 2014. And now the Donbass region in the east is increasingly under Russian control. This is where the current conflict is brewing. To understand why we have to get back to last months occurrences.
On March 26, four Ukrainian soldiers were killed by pro Russian separatist groups. The killings contravened a ceasefire brokered in 2020 and ended a year of relative calm. In the 17 days that have followed the situation has become quite precarious.
Thousands of soldiers have descended on the border. So have regiments of tanks and missile launchers. Jane's intelligence information group has tweeted about the deployment of Iskander missile systems from Russian Army which are very effective short range missiles. Besides offensive weapons Russia is using cyber-warfare and propaganda warfare against Ukraine which makes it a hybrid warfare of Russia.
Early on BBC reported that Russia has newly deployed 16 battalion tactical groups which consists nearly 14 thousand troops. This makes 40,000 Russian troops in Ukrainian border and another 40 thousand in Crimea. This is the largest Russian military build-up after 2014's Crimea war.
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| [Soldiers in Crimea,2014©NYT] |
Ukraine calls it an unwarranted provocation against its sovereignty. Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council says on press conference, " We clearly understand the scale of Russian military presence next to our border. I would like to specify that the question of war depends only on Putin. "
On the other hand Russia calls it an escalated hysteria about a mythical threat. Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson of Russian Foreign Ministry states," Troops are being transported there. Mobilization plans, calls for reservists are being renewed. Ukrainian media is escalating hysteria about the Russian mythical threat about plans to Moscow attacking Ukraine practically tomorrow. All this is happening at the behest and open support of western curators of Kiev. "
Both Moscow and Kiev denies stoking up tensions.
The root of the problem relies on Ukraine’s geographic and demographic makeup. As a former Soviet territory Ukraine is divided between an eastern region with close historical and cultural ties with Russia. And the rest of country which identifies as more ukrainian than anything else.
| [Soldier in Donbass, Ukraine ©FT] |
The east has been the hop-bed of rebellion and pro-russian sentiment. The rebels allegedly received supports from Moscow and have played a key role in keeping the conflict simmering. Since 2014, 13 thousand civilians, 4 thousand Ukrainian troops and more than 5 thousands pro-Russian separatists have been killed in this ongoing conflict.
To put an end to it the Ukrainian government is pushing for a NATO membership. And this where things have got more complicated. For NATO and Europe this means influence on another one of Russia's borders. But Moscow views it as an existential threat. It has invested billions of in Ukraine and a large part of Russian oil export goes through Ukraine. And of course there’s a sizable of population of pro-Russian people who want to secede from Ukraine.
The stakes are quite high, the prospect for a solution is quite low. The implications for Europe is quite severe and reports of looming 3rd World War is quite frightening.